Our Publications

Humans are taking colossal risks with the future of civilization and everything that lives on Earth, a new Earth Commission study published in the journal Nature shows. Developed by more than 40 researchers from across the globe, the scientists deliver the first quantification of safe and just Earth system boundaries on a global and local level for several biophysical processes and systems that regulate the state of the Earth system.

New research published today in The Lancet Planetary Health shows that the planet will only remain able to provide even a basic standard of living for everyone in the future if economic systems and technologies are dramatically transformed and critical resources are more fairly used, managed and shared.

Explore a complete bibliography of the Earth Commission publications from 2020 until now. The list includes Earth Commission peer-reviewed papers, papers led by the different working groups of the Commission and associated papers.

In a new paper, members of the Commission explain the criteria for setting these boundaries. They also find 14 to 85% of the global population are currently exposed to harm from critical areas like climate, water, and air pollution.

Research from one of the Earth Commission’s working groups reveals that aligning climate targets between major colocated cities and businesses could amplify emissions reductions by 67%, driving significant progress toward sustainability.

Cities and businesses have an untapped potential to drive global sustainability efforts, but both need clear directives to act. Could empowering them be the key to achieving future development goals?

What is the safe and just space within which humans must learn to manoeuvre? Which are the Earth System Boundaries that ensure a stable planet and minimises harm to humans and other species? And how can just access to basic living standards be ensured for all people? This video from the Earth Commission serves to […]

What are the implications for governance of Earth system justice and Earth system boundaries? What are the transformations necessary to live within the safe and just space, where everybody on the planet is able to live a life free from poverty? A new report, led by Earth Commissioners Joyeeta Gupta and Diana Liverman, offers a […]

New research published today in The Lancet Planetary Health shows that the planet will only remain able to provide even a basic standard of living for everyone in the future if economic systems and technologies are dramatically transformed and critical resources are more fairly used, managed and shared.

Tipping elements of the Earth system should be considered global commons, researchers argue in a new paper published in the renowned journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The new publication is the result of an almost two year-long research process involving 22 leading international researchers. It supports and strengthens the argument that the global […]

A new study from the Earth Commission reveals that unless (semi-)natural spaces within human-modified areas are strategically created and maintained, people will miss out on the many regulating and non-material benefits that nature provides. Authors conclude that only one third of human modified-lands meet this level today. While conservation efforts usually focus on protecting the 50% […]

A new study published by an international team of researchers from the Earth Commission, hosted by Future Earth, introduces strategic and transparent procedures to help cities and businesses align their sustainability efforts with Earth system boundaries (ESBs). Earth system boundaries define safe and just limits – in relation to the climate, the terrestrial biosphere, freshwater, nutrients and […]

A major new report, with leading contributions from multiple Earth Commissioners, highlights the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and was launched at COP28. The report, which is the most comprehensive review of tipping points to date, includes an analysis of ‘super leverage points’ that can be […]

In a new paper, Earth Commission experts investigate how to ensure the basic water needs of the world’s population can be met in a safe and just manner. About one third of the global population live in river basins where, in order to stay within safe and just boundaries for water, their basic water needs […]

Humans are taking colossal risks with the future of civilization and everything that lives on Earth, a new Earth Commission study published in the journal Nature shows. Developed by more than 40 researchers from across the globe, the scientists deliver the first quantification of safe and just Earth system boundaries on a global and local level for several biophysical processes and systems that regulate the state of the Earth system.

In a new study published in Nature Sustainability an international team of scientists from the Earth Commission, convened by Future Earth, investigates how global biophysical boundaries need to be adjusted to ensure a safe and just future for people, nature and the planet. This new framework integrates methods to reduce harm to people, increase access to resources, […]

With the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal global biodiversity framework now set, attention turns to its potential for implementation and achieving its 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature.

In a new associated paper of the Earth Commission an international group of researchers show that temporarily overshooting the climate targets of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius could increase the tipping risk of several Earth system elements. This tipping risk increases even if in the longer term the global temperature would stabilize within the Paris range. Avoiding an […]

Researchers find that achieving access to minimum resources and services for all whilst safeguarding the stability of the Earth system requires redistribution and societal transformations. In a new study published in the journal Nature Sustainability, an international team of scientists from the Earth Commission, convened by Future Earth, investigates the Earth system impacts of escaping poverty and […]

What businesses and cities must do to stay within ‘safe and just’ environmental limits for carbon, water, nutrients, land and other natural resources is the subject of a new set of recommendations from Earth Commission experts. The authors have published key knowledge gaps for researchers to help cities and businesses to operate within Earth system […]

Multiple climate tipping points could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a major new analysis co-authored by several Earth Commissioners published in the journal Science. Even at current levels of global heating the world is already at risk of passing five dangerous climate tipping points, and risks increase with each […]

In June 2022 the Earth Commission achieved some important milestones: Its first major papers were submitted to high impact, scientific journals. Publication and launch of the results will depend on the peer review process, but is anticipated to take place in early 2023.

Despite decades of increasing investment in conservation, ‘bending the curve’ of biodiversity decline has not succeeded. Scientists argue that stronger outcomes for biodiversity conservation can be attained if conservation actions are combined with justice measures to tackle the underlying causes of decline.

Why should social scientists engage in environmental target setting? This question is discussed by researchers in the Earth Commission’s Transformations Working Group in the article Reconciling safe planetary targets and planetary justice in the journal Earth System Governance. Led by professor Joyeeta Gupta, co-chair of the Earth Commission, the group highlights the need to consider justice and […]

In the lead up to the UN meeting Stockholm +50, the co-chairs Johan Rockström, Joyeeta Gupta and Qin Dahe presented the Earth Commission in the commentary Stockholm to Stockholm: Achieving a safe Earth requires goals that incorporate a just approach in One Earth. Already in the first UN Conference on the human environment, held in Stockholm in […]

For the first time, the Earth Commission has brought together the complexity of humans living on Earth in a framework that defines a challenging and fundamental core pillar for their work: how to determine what’s “safe and just” for Earth’s systems and the people who rely on them.

A ‘safety net’ made up of multiple, interlinked and ambitious goals is needed to tackle nature’s alarming decline. No single goal can capture the broad range of characteristics that need to be sustained, concludes a large international team of researchers analysing the new goals for nature being drafted by the UN’s Convention on Biological Diversity. […]

Explore a complete bibliography of the Earth Commission publications from 2020 until now. The list includes Earth Commission peer-reviewed papers, papers led by the different working groups of the Commission and associated papers.