Publications

Featured Publications

A just world on a safe planet: First study quantifying Earth System Boundaries live

Humans are taking colossal risks with the future of civilization and everything that lives on Earth, a new Earth Commission study published today in the journal Nature shows. Developed by more than 40 researchers from across the globe, the scientists deliver the first quantification of safe and just Earth system boundaries on a global and local level for several biophysical processes and systems that regulate the state of the Earth system.

Impacts of Meeting Minimum Access on Critical Earth Systems amidst the Great Inequality

Researchers find that achieving access to minimum resources and services for all whilst safeguarding the stability of the Earth system requires redistribution and societal transformations, in a new study published in the journal Nature Sustainability, which investigates the Earth system impacts of escaping poverty and achieving a dignified life for all.

Peer-reviewed papers

Explore a complete bibliography of the Earth Commission publications from 2020 until now. The list includes Earth Commission peer-reviewed papers, papers led by the modelling workstreams (and associated papers), papers led by the biosphere and pollution workstreams, peer-reviewed papers led by the transformations workstream and peer-reviewed papers led by the translation workstream (WG5).

Latest Publications

New study identifies ‘positive tipping points’ that can be leveraged to prevent the collapse of the Earth system

A major new report, with leading contributions from multiple Earth Commissioners, highlights the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and was launched at COP28. The report, which is the most comprehensive review of tipping points to date, includes an analysis of ‘super leverage points’ that can be used to create a cascade of positive change.

A just world on a safe planet: First study quantifying Earth System Boundaries live

Humans are taking colossal risks with the future of civilization and everything that lives on Earth, a new Earth Commission study published today in the journal Nature shows. Developed by more than 40 researchers from across the globe, the scientists deliver the first quantification of safe and just Earth system boundaries on a global and local level for several biophysical processes and systems that regulate the state of the Earth system.

Overshooting climate targets could significantly increase risk for tipping cascades, study finds

In a new associated paper of the Earth Commission an international group of researchers show that temporarily overshooting the climate targets of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius could increase the tipping risk of several Earth system elements. This tipping risk increases even if in the longer term the global temperature would stabilize within the Paris range. Avoiding an overshoot would hence limit the risks.

Risk of passing multiple climate tipping points escalates above 1.5°C global warming

Multiple climate tipping points could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a major new analysis co-authored by several Earth Commissioners published in the journal Science. Even at current levels of global heating the world is already at risk of passing five dangerous climate tipping points, and risks increase with each tenth of a degree of further warming.

Earth Commission Milestone Reached – First Assessment Submitted

In June 2022 the Earth Commission achieved some important milestones: Its first major papers were submitted to high impact, scientific journals. Publication and launch of the results will depend on the peer review process, but is anticipated to take place in early 2023.

Targets for planetary stability need to be both safe and just

Why should social scientists engage in environmental target setting? This question is discussed by researchers in the Earth Commission’s Transformations Working Group in the article Reconciling safe planetary targets and planetary justice in the journal Earth System Governance.

A “Safe and Just corridor” for planet and people

For the first time, the Earth Commission has brought together the complexity of humans living on Earth in a framework that defines a challenging and fundamental core pillar for their work: how to determine what’s “safe and just” for Earth’s systems and the people who rely on them.

Tackling the Alarming Decline in Nature Requires a ‘Safety Net’ of Goals

A ‘safety net’ made up of multiple, interlinked and ambitious goals is needed to tackle nature’s alarming decline. No single goal can capture the broad range of characteristics that need to be sustained, concludes a large international team of researchers analysing the new goals for nature being drafted by the UN’s Convention on Biological Diversity.

Peer-reviewed papers

Explore a complete bibliography of the Earth Commission publications from 2020 until now. The list includes Earth Commission peer-reviewed papers, papers led by the modelling workstreams (and associated papers), papers led by the biosphere and pollution workstreams, peer-reviewed papers led by the transformations workstream and peer-reviewed papers led by the translation workstream (WG5).