All peer-reviewed papers

01/01/2023

Earth Commission peer-reviewed papers

• Rockström, J. Gupta, J. Qin, D. Lade, S. et al. Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries,
  Nature 2023
• Gupta, J. Bai, X. Liverman, D. Rockström, J. Qin, D. et al. A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations Lancet Planetary Health 2024. 
• Rockström, J. Gupta, J. Lenton, T. M. Qin, D. Lade, S. et al. Identifying a safe and just corridor for people and the planet, Earth’s Future 2021
• Rockström, J. Gupta, J. Qin, D. Pedde, S. Broadgate, W. Warszawski, L.  Stockholm to Stockholm: Achieving a safe Earth requires goals that incorporate a just approach One Earth 2021 

Papers led by the Modelling Working Group (and associated papers)

• Lenton, T. M… Abrams, J. Armstrong McKay, D. Sakschewski, B. Loriani, S. Zimm, C. et al. Quantifying the human cost of global warming, Nature Sustainability, 2023
• Armstrong McKay, D…Abrams, J. Sakschewski, B. Winkelmann, R. Rockström, J. Lenton T. M. et al. Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 2022
• Wunderling, N. Winkelmann, R. Rockström, J. Loriani, S. et al. Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model. Nature Climate Change, 2023
• Xiao, C. .. Qin, D. et al. Do abrupt cryosphere events in High Mountain Asia indicate earlier tipping point than expected?, Advances in Climate Change Research, 2023  
• Roose, S. Bala, G. et al. Quantification of tropical monsoon precipitation changes in terms of interhemispheric differences in stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth, Climate Dynamics, 2023
• Abrams, J. Armstrong McKay, D. Sakschewski, B. Loriani, S. Zimm, C. Ebi, K. et al Committed warming leaves little choice to avoid climate tipping points, One Earth 2023 
• Loriani, S. Aksenov Y. Armstrong McKay, D. Bala, G. et al. Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations, Earth System Dynamics 2025

Papers led by the Biosphere and Nutrients and Pollution Working Groups

• Mohamed, A. et al. Securing Nature’s Contributions to People requires at least 20%–25% (semi-)natural habitat in human-modified landscapes, One Earth 2024
• Obura, D. The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework: Business as usual or a turning point?, One Earth 2023 
• Obura, D. DeClerck, F. Verburg, P. Gupta, J. et al. Achieving a nature- and people-positive future, One Earth 2022
• Diaz, S. et al. Set ambitious goals for biodiversity and sustainability Science 2020 
• Stewart-Koster, B. et al. Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water, Nature Sustainability, 2023 
• Schulte-Uebbing, L. F.  et al. From planetary to regional boundaries for agricultural nitrogen pollution, Nature, 2022

Papers led by the Transformations/Justice Working Group

• Gupta, J, Liverman, D, Prodani, K. et al. Earth system justice needed to identify and live within Earth system boundaries. Nature Sustainability, 2023
• Rammelt, C. F., Gupta, J., Liverman, D., Scholtens J., et al. Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical Earth systems amidst the Great Inequality. Nature Sustainability 6, no. 2, 2022
• Gupta, J. Prodani, K., Bai, X., Gifford, L. Lenton, T.M. Otto, 1. Pereira, L. et al. Earth system boundaries and Earth system justice: Sharing the Ecospace Environmental Politics, 2023
• Gifford L. Liverman D., Gupta J, Jacobson, L. Governing for a safe and just future with science-based targets: Opportunities and limitations. Climate and Development, 2023
• Gupta, J. Liverman, D. Bai, X. Gordon, C. Hurlbert, M. Inoue, C. Y. A. Jacobson, L. Kanie, N. Lenton, T.M. Obura, D. et al. Reconciling safe planetary targets and planetary justice: Why should social scientists engage with planetary targets? Earth System Governance, 2021
• Gupta, J, et al. Applying earth system justice to phase out fossil fuels: learning from the injustice of adopting 1.5 °C over 1 °C. Int Environ Agreements , 2024
• Gupta, J, et al. Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth Commission. Earth System Governance, 2025.

Papers led by the Translation Working Group

• Bai, X. et al. How to stop cities and companies causing planetary harm, Nature 2022
• Bai, X. Syezlin Hasan, S. Seaby Andersen, L. et al. Translating Earth System Boundaries for Cities and Businesses Nature Sustainability, 2024
• Kilkis, S. Bjørn, A. et al. City-company collaboration as accelerator towards operating within Earth System Boundaries, Nature Sustainability, 2024

Thank you!

The Earth Commissioners have volunteered their time to contribute to this work. The Earth Commission is The Earth Commission is grateful to several investors, who have contributed to the secretariat and supporting researchers’ salaries.

The work of the Earth Commission has been made possible through the support of the Global Commons Alliance, a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors. Over the years, the following funders have supported the Earth Commission: Global Environment Facility, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Oak Foundation, Porticus, MAVA, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, Global Challenges Foundation, Swedish Research Council Formas, Frontiers Research Foundation, Generation Foundation.