The Path Ahead
06/08/2026
Published in 2023, the Earth Commission’s Safe and Just Boundaries defined the limits that keep the planet stable while protecting people from harm. Together, they outline the space where environmental risks are manageable and human well-being is safeguarded.
Now, the Commission is entering its next phase: updating these boundaries and developing the science, methods, and guidance needed to translate them into practical targets for different actors, as well as pathways for real-world transformation. Published this June, the Commission’s latest paper lays out its scientific roadmap from boundary assessment toward implementation through cross-scale translation, budgets, and transformation pathways.
In this Q&A, Science Director Albert Norström explains how the Commission aims to turn global science into practical guidance by linking planetary stability with human well-being as well as mapping out what humanity will need to do in order to have a fair and liveable future.
What are the main goals and priorities for the Earth Commission’s next assessment?
Albert: I would say that there are three priorities. First, we’ll complete the Safe and Just Boundaries framework by adding missing Earth system processes like novel entities (chemical and plastic pollution) and oceans, plus better quantify the interactions between the different boundaries.
Our second priority is to move from boundaries to operational targets: developing actionable budgets and translation methods that countries, cities, companies and other actors can use, and doing so in ways that are scientifically robust, fair and transparent.
And the third priority is to identify transformation pathways. We want to produce time‑bound pathways that show how we move into a safe and just space, how we reduce pressures on these boundaries while still meeting basic human needs.
One theme is how different boundaries interact, like how climate change impacts the ocean or biodiversity. Why is understanding these connections so important?
Albert: The interest in highlighting these interactions between the boundaries is linked to what we hope will be one of our key messages to decision-makers: that the problem at stake is systemic, not sectoral.
By examining these interactions between, for example, the climate, biodiversity and water, you really show that the problem is not just in one slice of the Earth system, and that you can’t solve any of these issues independently. You can’t solve climate issues or biodiversity issues independently without thinking about how the interactions between these different systems occur and matter.
The paper mentions developing “burning ember” diagrams. What exactly are these and how are they useful for decision-makers?
Albert: Burning embers are a way to help visualize how risks grow as pressures increase. They were adapted and developed by the IPCC, and basically what they show is that risks escalate non‑linearly as the pressure increases.
You can show this through colour transitions, where you move through increasing risk likelihoods from white, yellow, red and purple. Each transition corresponds to a qualitative shift in risk. What they can help illustrate is that the Safe and Just Boundaries are not cliffs; they are a spectrum. You don’t just suddenly fall off but you increase the risk as you move across a pressure gradient in any of these.
We hope these can help us communicate when a risk becomes significant and when it becomes widespread or irreversible, both for the safe level and the just level.
The paper states how the Commission’s coming work will focus on finding ways to reach a safe and just future. What does that mean in practice, and why is it so important?
Albert: I would say that’s one of the big evolutions of this phase of the Earth Commission.
The first phase defined the safe and just space. With the work on transformation pathways, we’re trying to answer the question of how we actually move within that safe and just space, and stay within that space, in a fair manner.
That body of work within the Earth Commission is combining Earth system science with political economy, governance and inequality scholarship to understand the time‑bound pathways we need to follow – in ways that take us to a safe and just space where we reduce pressures on the safe and just boundaries, while at the same time meeting human needs that are in line with basic human rights and can generate decent living standards for everyone living on this planet.
