For a Safe and Just Climate at COP30
27/11/2025
In Belém, the Earth Commission brought scientific clarity and a focus on justice to a summit defined by urgency.
Just a short distance from the edge of the Amazon rainforest, members of the Commission and partners helped anchor COP debates in the latest science and the principles of the Safe and Just Boundaries.
Throughout the week, they joined events exploring why progress on climate action remains so slow a decade after the Paris Agreement. Co-organized with the Global Commons Alliance and Earth4All, speakers included Co-Chairs Johan Rockström and Fatima Denton, Commissioners Laura Pereira and Tim Lenton as well as Executive Director Wendy Broadgate and Science Director Albert Norström.
During one event, both Rockström and Denton pointed out that the major obstacles are no longer scientific, they are political and social. Populism, weak institutions, and low public trust continue to block or reverse climate gains.
Rockström explained how the Safe and Just Boundaries can guide decision-makers by showing where the world stands relative to key climate and ecological limits. But he also sounded a warning:
“Geopolitical instabilities are impacting our ability to align the transformations we know are necessary,” he said. “Even if all current commitments were met, global emissions would only fall by about 5% in the next decade. Science shows we need that level of reduction every year to avoid overshoot and keep a livable future within reach.”
Speakers also emphasized that cultural change and public engagement are essential. Without people understanding the risks and helping shape solutions, fair and lasting policies cannot take hold. Others—including Fatima Denton Laura Pereira and others—highlighted how climate and nature crises hit the poorest communities, Indigenous Peoples, women, and younger generations hardest. They called for transitions that are both fast and fair.
Outcomes of the COP
At the close of COP30, participating countries approved a broad “Belém Package” that includes several important outcomes: a commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035, creation of a new Just Transition Mechanism, and a commitment to boost overall climate funding flows, including through a new global finance work programme.
Yet negotiations fell short of delivering a binding path out of fossil fuel dependence or a strong, enforceable forest‑restoration plan. The conference concluded without a mandated fossil‑fuel phase-out, and the proposed roadmap for forests remained largely voluntary.
Both shortcomings underscore why scientific voices remain vital. Earth system science, combined with justice‑centered frameworks, are needed to press for stronger, enforceable decisions especially to protect ecosystems like the Amazon and secure a stable, just future for all.
Protecting the world’s life support systems
Across nearly every discussion, the Amazon remained a central concern. Although Brazil has made progress in slowing deforestation, the forest is still close to a point of irreversible decline.
Experts, like Commissioner Tim Lenton, warned that losing the Amazon would have cascading consequences for global climate stability, biodiversity, and rainfall patterns across South America.
The message from the Earth Commission at COP30 was clear: the world has the knowledge it needs. What is required now is political courage, inclusive governance, and collective action to protect the planet and ensure a just future for all.
